CO129-489 - Governor Sir Stubbs & Sir Clementi - 1925 [8-12] — Page 369

it is

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hope to close the year without à heavy deficit. too Erly yet to attempt to give even approximately accurate figures and I do not feel able to commit myself to any forecast beyond saying that in any case our balances are sufficient to cover any possible deficit this year and to leave us a margin which should enable us to carry on through the year 1926 without imposing additional burdens

on the taxpayer unless the situation should become materially worse than it is at present.

In framing the Estimate of Revenue for 1926

I have considered that I am justified in believing that conditions during at least the greater part of the year will be normal and I have therefore taken a figure ($21,367,743) which is about half a million dollars less

than our original conservative estimate for 1925.

I cannot believe that the intelligent people

-

of Kwongtung a race which has been famous for centuries for its commercial ability and practical sense -

can be content much longer to put up with the oppression of a regime imposed from outside and supported by mercenaries

from other provinces and I think it is not being over-

sanguine to hope for the establishment of good order by

the end of this year or early in the next.

It is, however, obvious that such a return to sanity will not immediately re-establish trade on as good

a basis as before. The harm which our enemies have done

to us is not by any means negligible but it is of course

nothing compared with the loss and destruction which they

have brought on the unfortunate provinces of South China and it must be years before the consequences cease to be

felt. It is therefore necessary to proceed with the

greatest caution, not to form too high hopes of the near

future and to refrain from committing ourselves to costly